May 6, 2015

Goals

  • This presentation will provide admission officers with statistical evidence and data visualizations that they can use in conversations on their campuses to document and plan for the impact that New Jersey’s shifting demographic landscape may have on enrollment.

  • Additionally, the presentation will highlight several tools and data sets that admission officers can use to monitor relevant demographic trends in the coming years. All of the materials from this presentation will be made available on www.richmajerus.com.

Introduction

  • Three geographic levels
    • Country
    • State
    • County


  • Two temporal dimensions
    • What has happened
    • What is projected to happen

Country Level Analysis: Population Trends

Country Level Analysis: School Enrollment Trends

State Level Analysis: Population Trends

State Level Analysis: Population Projections

  • Data from the New Jersey Department of Labor.
  • It is important to note the data source as projections vary by source.

  • The population of New Jersey is projected to increase by more than 1 million people between 2012 and 2032.

  • However, the majority of this growth is projected to occur in non-school age categories.

  • The school age population in New Jersey is projected to fluctuate from 2012 to 2032.

County Level Analysis: Population Trends

NJAIS Member Schools

County Level Analysis: Population Projections

  • Data from New Jersey Department of Labor

  • Notable variability in population projections exist across both counties and age categories.

  • Overall, the Department of Labor statistics project that the school age population in many New Jersey counties will remain constant over the next twenty years.

  • For example, the school age population projections for each age group in Morris County are stable over the next twenty years.

  • Conversely, the school age population projections for Hudson County show substantially greater fluctuations over the next 20 years.

  • Graphics on all counties are available on Github

Goals

  • This presentation will provide admission officers with statistical evidence and data visualizations that they can use in conversations on their campuses to document and plan for the impact that New Jersey’s shifting demographic landscape may have on enrollment.

  • Additionally, the presentation will highlight several tools and data sets that admission officers can use to monitor relevant demographic trends in the coming years. All of the materials from this presentation will be made available on www.richmajerus.com.